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- 👀 A billionaire's (new) prediction
GM everyone. This is 2036. We scroll for gems all day so you don’t have to.
Here’s what we’re serving up today 🍲: Dan Morehead is the godfather of crypto. His bitcoin fund is up +41,000% over the last decade. Here’s where he thinks crypto is going next.
Let’s dig in.
On July 5, 2013, Dan Morehead sent this email to his business partners:
TLDR:
When bitcoin lost half its value - Dan didn’t panic. He saw bitcoin on discount i.e ‘on May 28th, $20M would buy 156,000 bitcoins. Now it will buy 308,000’
Just in case his business partners said NO - Dan bought 30,000 bitcoin with his own money.
The rest is history. Dan and his partners created the first-ever bitcoin fund, and Dan’s 30,000 personal bitcoins are now worth ∼$1.1 BILLION.
In crypto, Dan is a legend. When he speaks, the rest of us listen.
This week, he released his latest prediction to the world. Here’s what it says…
1/ The majority of this cycle’s gains are yet to come.
Historically, bitcoin peaks when - simultaneously:
the number of people who hold BTC for longer than 1 year drops 📉
the price increases 📈
You can see it in this chart:
Bitcoin always rallies before the number of BTC held for 1+ year peaks (orange line).
But it rallies even more afterward - for 1.3 years on average:
Historically, the peak has always happened within two-quarters of the bitcoin halving. And the next one is in April 2024.
This means:
we may not even have reached the peak yet
the real rally hasn’t started
… which brings us to Dan’s next point:
2/ “If Bitcoin has rallied 160% this year - did you miss it?”
No, you didn’t.
It’s up almost that much EVERY year on average. The 13-year average growth rate is 117% per year.
That means…
3/ Bitcoin is still very cheap relative to its long-term trend.
The rally this year was just another normal bitcoin year:
In this graph, you can see that the yellow line has barely outpaced the 13-year trend.
Right now - even after this year’s rally - Bitcoin is still 74% undervalued relative to its long-term trend.
It’s only ever spent 13% of the last 13 years at that level.
This is why I keep insisting that:
it’s not too late to buy crypto if you haven’t already
most of the gains are yet to come
despite the rally - bitcoin is still cheap
If history is any guide, you want to set yourself up now to capture the major gains over the next ∼18 months.
If you’re not 100% sure how to do that, I am writing a guide to help you:
get all the right tools set up to make investments easily
determine exactly how much you should allocate to each crypto to capture 90% of the upside with minimal risk
take profits
invest in early winners like we did with $PEPE (22X), Ordinals (11X) $NINJA (9X in 72 hours), Solana (7X) and many more…
You can still get the guide for -60% off its future price.
P.S: you can also read Dan’s full essay here.
