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👀 A billionaire's prediction

👀 A billionaire's prediction

PLUS: Republicans on bitcoin

Alex M.
August 24, 2023

GM everyone. This is 2036, the crypto newsletter that pays you.

Here’s what we’re serving up today 🍲: Dan Morehead is like the godfather of crypto. His bitcoin fund is up 41,000% over the last decade. And he just released his latest bitcoin prediction.

Let’s dig in.

BONUS: we’ve introduced a new section in the newsletter. Check it out and let us know what you think by replying to this email!

🥔 Today’s meat and potatoes

Get smarter on crypto in 2 minutes

On July 5, 2013, Dan Morehead sent this email to his business partners:

TLDR:

When bitcoin lost half its value - Dan didn’t panic. He saw bitcoin on discount i.e ‘on May 28th, $20M would buy 156,000 bitcoins. Now it will buy 308,000’
Just in case his business partners said no, Dan bought 30,000 bitcoin with his personal money.

The rest is history. Dan and his partners created the first-ever bitcoin fund, and Dan’s 30,000 personal bitcoins are now worth ∼$800 million.

In crypto, Dan is a legend. When he speaks, the rest of us listen.

He recently released his latest essay to the world 👀

Here’s what it says:

1/ Black swan events are typically negative events no one anticipated e.g. COVID, lockdowns, financial crashes, etc.

The court ruling that Ripple (XRP) is not a security was a positive event no one had expected (a positive black swan).

It was like a Christmas gift in July 🎁

2/ Web 3 Gaming is now officially underhyped.

Pantera Capital (Dan’s company) thinks that:

Just like NBA game jerseys worn by players can sell for $10M+, NFTs can be used to represent memorabilia in e-sports.
A liquid international market for in-game items sets better prices than a single game designer could do…

… both of which contribute to deeper player engagement and enhanced game economies.

a.k.a good things are about to happen in the Web3 gaming world.

3/ Bitcoin has now experienced the longest period of negative year-on-year returns (15 months).

Before this, the longest period lasted one year - from November 2014 to November 2015.

And the markets can only be down for so long.

In Dan’s opinion, the next bull market already has a strong setup:

Blackrock has filed for a Bitcoin ETF
XRP is not a security
The next bitcoin halving will occur in April 2024

Historically, bitcoin has bottomed ∼480 days after the halving and has then rallied for another ∼480 days.

The current bottom was put in in November 2022 (the collapse of FTX).

And if history is any guide, here is where Dan expects prices to land this cycle…

480 days after the next halving (in 2025), bitcoin should reach a max price of $147,843.

But Bitcoin is already much higher, much faster than Dan expected (∼$35K by April 2024; we’re almost already there).

Time will tell where that will take us 👀

In the meantime, you can read Dan’s full post here.

🍨 Dessert

Stories to read if you have FOMO

1/ Shopify integrates with Solana (this is huge news)

2/ Where do the Republican candidates stand on bitcoin?

3/ NVIDIA rides the AI boom

We write about a lot of opportunities here at 2036… so we thought we would start gathering them in one updated section of the newsletter. More to come soon 👀