👀 Almost there...

GM everyone. This is 2036.

There’s good news, and there’s bad news.

I’ll start with the bad.

The markets look horrifying. On the back of Fed projections and seasonality, price action has been painful the last few days.

And the real bad is that it might not be over yet.

Historically, we’ve always had a big dump before starting alt season. Of course, we thought we could avoid it this time around (Trump! rate cuts! etc.)— but we were wrong.

In the last two cycles, these dumps have bottomed ∼255 days after the halving, which means there could be another 10 days of pain ahead:

The good news, however, is that altseason historically begins after this dump. That’s when we get 90 days of sunshine.

Of course, these are approximate numbers. We could shoot upward today and go straight up for 3 months. Or we could go down/sideways for another 2 weeks before starting the real fun.

Ok, so what now?

If you have fresh capital to deploy, now is probably as good a time as any to do so.

The price structures of BTC, ETH, and SOL have broken down. They’re re-touching many former highs and support levels, like ETH at ∼$3,000 and SOL at ∼$180.

These should provide a floor.

Of course, if these don’t hold, we risk going lower.

But as a general rule, you should fade your greed and buy your fear.

And if you’re already fully deployed— as hard as it may sound, I recommend closing the price charts and returning to them in a few days.

Even better, take the holidays off and come back in early January. By then, the pain should have subsided.

Everyone I know lost money yesterday and today. Don’t worry, it hurts for everyone—even veterans who have been through multiple cycles.

So don’t be too hard on yourself today.

I’ll be taking a while off to travel and enjoy my son.

Thank you for a great year, and congratulations on riding BTC from $43,000 to $100,000 in 2024.

The fun’s about to start.

I’ll talk to you next year.

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.