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  • 🚨 Crypto is crashing. What’s next?

🚨 Crypto is crashing. What’s next?

PLUS: my 4 tips

GM everyone. This is 2036. We scroll for gems all day so you don’t have to.

Here’s what we’re serving up today šŸ²: Over the last few days, Bitcoin has dipped into the low $60,000s. What’s going on - and where do we go from here?

Let’s dig in.

The moment we all feared has arrived 😱

Just kidding.

For the first time since March 1, the Bitcoin ETF flows have been negative for two days in a row.

Much of that can be attributed to inflation coming in hotter than expected.

Higher inflationšŸ“ˆ = lower chance of rate cuts šŸ“‰ = bad for risk assets šŸ“‰ (or so the theory goes).

But inflation and interest rate expectations are fickle, difficult to trade and can change at any moment.

So here are a few things to keep in mind…

1/ Institutions are no smarter than you šŸ¤“

Traditional fund managers tend to buy high and sell low. They’re just as greed and fear-driven as the rest of us.

They’d rather be wrong alongside everyone else than be right on their own.

This makes crypto prices even more reflexive with the Bitcoin ETFs - lower prices will lead to more selling, and higher prices to more buying.

But all in all…

2/ Dips are normal, healthy, and expected šŸ„—

One of my favorite charts of all time is this one:

It shows crypto bull markets are ripe with 30-60% dips.

These are normal and overall good for the ecosystem as they flush out excess leverage.

They’re the price we pay to reach the promised land.

Imagine getting on a flight from New York to Bora Bora. It’s a long flight, and you know in advance there’ll be turbulence on the way. But it’s BORA BORA baby.

You wouldn’t think of jumping out of the plane halfway through the air at the first signs of turbulence.

Yet that’s exactly what most of us do on the way to financial Bora Bora.

Because the long-term price of Bitcoin is up only:

As a passenger on a plane, you never know how long the turbulence will last.

But :

  • it often lasts longer than you want

  • it’s always uncomfortable

  • it eventually ends

That’s why:

3/ Every dip is a buying opportunity šŸŽÆ

Maybe you’ve been on the sidelines, waiting for a chance to buy. Maybe you felt like you were late to the party.

Well, now’s your chance.

Michael Saylor just bought another $623 million of Bitcoin this week.

And all the smartest traders I know are taking positions.

You will never time the bottom perfectly. But in a few months, it won’t matter whether you bought bitcoin at $61,000 or $68,000.

What will matter is that you own some.

Remember, the time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets - even if it’s your own.

So with that, remember to…

4/ Manage your psychology 🧠

Ha - the thing that matters most that no one wants to talk about.

Remember this meme?

This is a LOT harder than most people think.

Remember, narrative follows prices.

When prices go up, people will make up all sorts of reasons why it’ll never stop.

And when they go down, they’ll start creating stories of why they’ll keep falling.

This creates a vicious cycle of irrational greed and fear.

Don’t fall for it.

As Charlie Munger famously said, "the money isn’t made in the buying or selling but in the waiting.ā€

Right now, the worst thing you can do is to make emotional decisions about your money:

  • trade in and out

  • ā€œsell to buy lowerā€

  • panic-sell everything

Instead, be like Winnie the Pooh:

If prices make your stomach turn, simply stop looking at them. The less you check, the higher the chance they’ll be in the green (here’s the math on that).

Remember, we just crossed the previous all-time high.

This is a big deal, and the beginning of the real fun.

If you believe:

  • we’re in a bull market

  • we’re going much higher

… then you have one job - and one job only: buy and wait.

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.