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GM everyone. This is 2036, the newsletter that makes you smarter on crypto in 3min/day.
Arthur Hayes is the undisputed king of crypto trading.
Heās the founder of Bitmex and the youngest African-American crypto billionaire.
Heās also the only person I know that has 77,000 ACTUAL followers on Medium. Thatās no small-boy stuff.
In his latest essay, he shared the two things you should do if you have more than $100 to your name (and no, itās not buying crypto).
We thought they were so important weād share them with you here.
Cue drumroll. Introducingā¦
King Arthur š

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Nightclub outings with bottle service and national banking systems have one thing in common: itās damn hard to know who pays for what.
Ever been out with that one guy who has half a drink and doesnāt want to pay?
Or the guy who orders an entire bottle 5min before the club closes and wants everybody to pay for it?
Well, when a bank fails, the government likewise has to decide who pays and who doesnāt.
To help its decision, itās established some guidelines. The most important is the Too-Big-To-Fail banks. There are 8 of them.
At those banks, all deposits are 100% guaranteed.
Then you have all the other thousands of banks.
At those smaller banks, deposits are only guaranteed up to $250K.
But these banks are in trouble. Four of them have gone under in the last two months alone. Thatās more $$$ than in all of 2008.
Theyāre going under because interest rates have gone up too much too fast, so the bonds these banks hold have collapsed in value.
But the banking system is only as robust as people believe it to be. And the government doesnāt want more bank failures. So it has two options:
1/ Guarantee all deposits, no matter the bank
2/ Lower interest rates so that the banks stop collapsing like hotcakes
Option 1 expands the amount of money in the economy by up to $18 TRILLION.
This will make assets like crypto and gold pump hard š In fact, they do every time a new bank gets bailed out because of the assumption all banks will get bailed out.
Thatās what we talked about yesterday - with the #1 thing that drives crypto.
Stocks will tank because companies will be unable to refinance their operations. And real estate will tank because buyers will be unable to afford mortgages.
Option 2 loosens financial conditions. This means all risk assets - gold, crypto, stocks, real estate, etc. - pump hard š
Which of those options the government will go for is not sure. Bidenās top economic priority is to fight inflation. But he wonāt be re-elected if every small bank in the country fails.

is that⦠inflation?
Whatās clear is that if rates donāt fall, more banks will fail. 722 are currently underwater.
And in the last four bank collapses, the government chose to make all depositors whole every time.

Going full circle, there are two urgent things you need to do today to put the odds in your favor, no matter what happens:
A/ If you have any deposits above $250,000, move them to a Too Big To Fail bank.
B/ If you own any regional bank stocks, sell them.
But what if youāre not American?
This problem still applies to you.
Most non-US institutions, like sovereign wealth funds, central banks, and insurance companies, own US dollar assets.
Like it or not, the US dollar will continue to depreciate against hard assets like gold and Bitcoin, as well as useful commodities like oil and copper.
No matter the option, it looks like crypto is up only from here š
Just make sure you are not the last sucker in the Western financial system when the bill comes. Get your Bitcoin, and get out.

Yours truly, Arthur Hayes
š¼ļø Crypto meme of the day
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