🛍️ Here's the good news

GM everyone. This is 2036.

I won’t sugarcoat it: the weekend was an ugly one for markets.

The last couple of days saw the largest altcoin liquidations in the history of Binance.

You see, at its onset, war is nearly always bad for markets. That’s because markets hate uncertainty.

• Will this escalate?

• Will the US get involved?

• Will this impact global trade?

• Will it impact the price of energy? etc.

Any disruption to the status quo tends to shake markets. And because crypto trades 24/7, prices tend to react near-instantaneously.

But that’s not all.

Last week, US inflation data came in higher than expected.

High inflation has historically been bad for risk assets like stocks and crypto.

If inflation soars, central banks tend to raise interest rates, which increases the return on risk-free US government bonds 📈.

All other assets now have to compete against a higher risk-free rate, making them less attractive 📉

And here’s the kicker: everyone—including the Fed itself—has been expecting 3 interest rate cuts this year.

However, higher-than-expected inflation means we could get more rate hikes instead of rate cuts.

More uncertainty.

Ok - so at first sight, things look ugly.

But there’s light at the end of the tunnel 🔦

In the last 18 months, the Fed raised rates 11 times to a 23-year high.

Yet in the same time span, Bitcoin is up ∼4X.

Another 0.25% interest rate hike likely won’t do much.

The market has also already recovered much of the losses of the weekend related to the war.

This means it may have digested the uncertainty already. And if things don’t escalate further, it probably won’t have much more impact.

So here’s the good news: if you were waiting for an entry, you just got it.

Many altcoins - including SOL and ETH - have taken a harsh beating.

The number of open positions in crypto products is back down to before the ETF run started when Bitcoin was trading at around $40,000.

Even the legendary CGR - who hasn’t Tweeted in a year - made me break my no-Twitter streak to read his message:

Sure - in the short term, we could get another pullback if the war escalates.

But crypto’s longer-term trajectory is still intact.

We are still in a bull market. The industry is moving forward (e.g., Hong Kong just approved Bitcoin ETFs today), and most of the gains are yet to come.

Leverage traders got flushed out, and at the risk of sounding like a 90s informercial - their lack of risk management is your opportunity.

Now is a time to be buying, not selling.

As always, when in doubt, zoom out.

When the market dips, valuations get reset lower, and everything becomes more affordable.

At 2036: Private Investor - we completed our biggest raise to date yesterday, more than double our last one.

We’ll continue investing as long as valuations remain attractive because 3-6 months from now, the market is very likely to be much higher than it is today.

It is always hard to go against the grain and buy when everything is red.

But as you’re probably growing tired of hearing - the time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets, even if it’s your own.

Remember our conversations on sticking to your thesis, relative strength & doubling down on your winners - and enjoy your shopping 🛍️

• 🎯 Want to invest in early-stage crypto opportunities before everyone else?

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1/ Crypto sells off amid drone attack on Israel…

2/ … but BTC rises as Hong Kong approves Bitcoin ETF

3/ Is there a new competitor to Solana?

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.