🏆 How to win in crypto (easy mode)

GM everyone. This is 2036.

Yesterday, I came across a graph that explains the seasons of crypto:

The breakdown is simple:

• 🌱 The bottom of the bear market marks the beginning of spring. After a long and arduous winter, we finally move up 📈 This is where you want to own mostly Bitcoin.

• ☀️ When we hit the previous all-time high, summer begins. In summer, we enjoy an up-mostly market. It’s the time to take an aggressive amount of risk 📈📈 This is where you want to own mostly altcoins.

• 🍂 Then comes fall. In the fall, crypto goes parabolic and tops, which marks the beginning of winter. In fall, we de-risk, take profits, and prepare for winter🚀 📉This is where you want to own mostly bitcoin and cash.

• ❄️ When winter is confirmed, we consolidate our gains and start buying again.

Right now, we’re just starting summer.

Bitcoin hit an all-time high ∼1 month ago.

This means the next couple of months have a decent chance of looking like this:

Yet most investors won’t capture these gains — because they don’t manage their risk intelligently and end up losing everything.

• They go way out on the risk curve way too late, mostly driven by FOMO.

• Then they stay there way past the top, mostly out of greed.

So how do you avoid this?

Well - let’s look at the fundamentals. Crypto is the best-performing asset in history:

Just holding the majors - Bitcoin, ETH & SOL - generates 140-200% annual returns.

That’s 10X more than Warren Buffett, considered the greatest investor in history. And you don’t have to do anything besides holding on for dear life through the ups and downs.

You don’t have to go out and seek risky coins. You can just own the leaders.

Now - if you wanted to juice your returns even further, you could simply own the leaders of the strongest categories… and do incredibly well.

It’s much easier to ride the wave of new, confirmed category leaders than to find the new leaders in the first place.

I’ve discussed this many times before: it’s the difference between throwing gasoline on an existing fire versus accumulating a lot of dry wood that may never take off.

The Layer 1 leaders are Bitcoin, ETH and now SOL.

The meme leaders are DOGE and now WIF.

The AI leaders are NEAR, TAO, and now RNDR.

The gaming leaders are IMX and BEAM, though because gaming is a late-cycle narrative and is yet to have its time in the sun, this could still change.

So, if you want to win in crypto on easy mode, you hold a lot of the Layer 1s and a bit of the rest.

Now - will some of you disagree with these choices?

Yes.

Will some investors outperform you?

Yes.

But will you outperform 99% of people?

Also yes.

Remember, the stories you’ll hear of people becoming gazillionaires from putting their entire borrowed net worth into some memecoin or NFT are mostly stupid luck.

For every one of these, there are 10,000 who tried and ended up with nothing.

So if you want to play it easy and capture 80%+ of the upside, just hold the majors.

This means you:

• DON’T put 90% of your assets into “upcoming” memecoins or sh*tcoins that you think are the next category leaders but aren’t.

Instead, if new category leaders emerge, you buy them on strength, not on hopes and dreams.

Any community will sell you on their thing/coin as the next hot sh*t. Don’t buy into it. Let the market show you what matters.

Price is everything.

• DON’T try to time the local highs and lows (e.g. ‘I’ll buy when it dips again’ / ‘it’s pumped too much already’)

Great assets may never dip again, and something that’s pumped 10X may pump another 20X.

• DON’T wait until fall 🍂 to take risks because you fall prey to FOMO.

Instead, fall is when we de-risk.

Of course, if you already own the majors and are crypto-savvy, you can do a lot more than this.

I certainly do.

However, I focus on areas where I can go deep and have specific knowledge that is both useful and difficult to obtain - like private crypto gaming deals where I have unique access through my network, expertise, and the ability to influence the deal itself.

But if you don’t have that, be wary of taking risks you can’t control.

At this stage, your biggest risk is being exposed to the wrong things.

Jim Rogers famously said: “I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime.”

Right now, that means holding strong crypto assets.

Don’t rob yourself of the chance to make a lot of money because you’re FOMO-ing into risk that isn’t worth it.

The cycle is still in full swing (the danger zone is the red), and you want to have as much capital as possible to participate in it.

So sit back, take a little more intelligent risk, and enjoy your upcoming gains.

They won’t last forever.

• 🎯 Want to invest in early-stage crypto opportunities before everyone else?

  • Click here to join 2036 Private Investor (it’s free).

1/ Standard Chartered: ‘Bitcoin will still reach $150,000 this year’

2/ Bitcoin miner revenue steady despite halving

3/ There are more bitcoin holders than ever

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.