📝 How we trade the bull market

GM everyone. This is 2036, the crypto newsletter that pays you.

Here’s what we’re serving up today 🍲: we’re at the beginning of a crypto bull market. But how exactly do you play it? What are you supposed to do at each stage? And when do you buy and sell?

Let’s dig in.

🥔 Today’s meat and potatoes

Get smarter on crypto in 2 minutes

Crypto works in 4-year cycles.

And every cycle goes through these four stages:

Stage #1: DISBELIEF 😐

The bear market is underway. The market is recovering from the last bottom. Things seem bleak.

Most crypto investors have either left the industry or are waiting for even lower lows.

Investors don’t believe prices can rise.

This account hasn’t tweeted in 3 months…

Yet, seemingly against all odds, prices start creeping up again - usually after some event. Bitcoin rallies first.

This time it was the SVB banking crisis. It pushed bitcoin up +50% in a month.

Some investors are caught off guard but regain a little bit of hope.

Yet most regular people aren’t paying attention here. Crypto is not yet in the news. And whenever it is, media pundits only talk about the previous crash.

This is where we are right now - at the end of this stage. This is where you BUY.

Stage #2: OPTIMISM & EARLY BULL MARKET 🥹

Crypto keeps rising, and some event or catalyst pushes prices above a long-held psychological barrier.

This could be:

• the bitcoin halving (expected in April 2024)

• the bitcoin ETF (expected between October ‘23 and March ‘24)

• a new hot crypto narrative that takes the world by storm, like the NFT craze

… or any number of things we can’t predict in advance that push prices to $35,000 or $40,000.

Everyone now agrees: the bull market has started.

Investors starting piling in. But a lot of investors don’t want “boring bitcoin.” They want the next 100X. So altcoins start rallying.

Here, your job is to sit on your bum and be patient. This is where you do NOTHING.

Stage #3: EUPHORIA AND PEAK BULL MARKET 🥳

Bitcoin rises by thousands of dollars every day.

Crypto influencers count every leg up on their social media accounts - “$47,000…$48,000…$49,000”

Your favorite YouTubers start making videos about crypto to get more views. The mainstream news media covers it at least once a week.

Your friends and family ask you about crypto. You tell them you read 2036.

Everyone has a theory about what the next 1,000X will be. Pople are convinced they’ll retire on X or Y coin.

A new hot thing comes out - a new coin, NFT, crypto game - whatever. The future will “never be the same.” Or so they say.

News of shitcoin millionaires pop up every day. Everybody wants a piece of the pie.

It looks like the good times will never stop. Every day, your net worth goes up by 10%.

Most people think they’re getting in at the bottom of the next wave — the beginning of the new paradigm.

But you know better. You know this isn’t the beginning, but the end. Your job here is to take profits. This is where you SELL.

You can sell all your profits into bitcoin and Ether to continue riding a 10-year crypto cycle.

Or if you’ve made life-changing money, you can use it to change your life i.e. cash out.

NOTE: How high will it go and how long will it last? We have no idea, but here’s an insight from some of the most respected voices in crypto:

i.e. ∼$148,000 by August 2025.

STAGE #4: CRASH & DENIAL 😧🫣

Bitcoin will probably be the first to decline.

But the party will continue elsewhere for a few months - like it did with Luna or GameFi in the last cycle, for example.

But suddenly, the music will stop. 

Altcoins will lose -10/-20% in a day. Then more. In a few weeks, the whole market is down -50%.

People will be denial.

They’ll say it’s just a minor correction - that “this time is different”.

But the smart money is already gone, cashed out and ready for the next cycle.

Ultimately, the optimism of those who are down -90% fades.

They slowly leave the industry altogether, their wallets full of worthless coins or NFTs that were the future. Allegedly.

Pain ensues. Dreams are erased.

And over the next months, a new bottom is formed. In the bottom is born the seed of a new cycle.

A year after the former peak and months after the bottom, crypto slowly starts creeping up again.

And so the cycle starts over:

🍨 Dessert

Stories to read if you have FOMO

1/ US government shutdown will not affect crypto

2/ Crypto influencer Ben Armstrong arrested

3/ Analysts eye potential bitcoin ETF approval by 2024

📈 Market opportunities

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