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What we most enjoyed this week

Blackrock is the largest asset manager in the world. Yesterday, they filed documents with the SEC to create a Bitcoin ETF.

This is the news we’ve all been waiting for.

Applications for Bitcoin ETFs in the US have been rejected multiple times before by the SEC (though approved in a bunch of other countries, notably Canada).

But this is different. Blackrock are the big boys.

They have $10 TRILLION in Assets Under Management. They’re politically connected. I could be wrong - but I suspect they wouldn’t file if they weren’t sure they’d get it approved.

Bitcoin ETFs are the #1 thing everyone is waiting for to bring institutions on board. Institutions don’t want to hold coins - they want an ETF.

American retail investors aren’t likely to move the markets in the near future (see below).

But a bitcoin ETF could:

  • give a way for wealthy individuals and institutions to invest in bitcoin legally

  • be a way for the government to ensure people hold bitcoin through government-controlled centralized institutions - like Blackrock - instead of by themselves.

That, btw, is exactly the China strategy.

Arthur Hayes explains it better than anyone…

I’ve said it before - and I’ll say it again for the kids in the back - if you had to read just one thing every month, it should be King Arthur’s essays.

His latest one is an absolute gold mine. Here’s a (long) snippet:

“It’s actually completely irrelevant whether the American mass affluent and below can own or trade Bitcoin or a subset of shitcoins.

They are broke, and the government ain’t handing out checks anymore. Even if Robinhood still allowed them to trade XYZ shitcoin, they wouldn’t have the available capital to purchase it anyway.

Instead, as we talked about earlier this year, attention is turning to China.

In August of 2015, the Chinese Central Bank sparked a rally in China’s interest for Bitcoin with a “shock” devaluation vs. the USD. From August to November of 2015, the price of Bitcoin tripled, with Chinese traders driving the market higher.

I believe something similar could happen in 2023.

Here’s how it could go down:

  1. Hong Kong allows a variety of asset managers to offer crypto-backed Bitcoin ETFs.

  2. A wealthy Chinese investor purchases one of the Bitcoin ETFs listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

  3. The Chinese investor now owns an ETF, which is a Bitcoin derivative, but not the physical Bitcoin. The investor only gets to participate in the price performance of Bitcoin, rather than holding the coin itself.

This solves many problems for China:

  1. It gives an outlet into a hard asset for wealthy Chinese who want to escape the ongoing weakening of the CNY. The wealthy feel smart and happy that their capital is “protected”.

  2. The endpoint of this outlet is an institution that must follow whatever rules Hong Kong regulators put in place, which in essence means the physical Bitcoin is controlled by the Chinese government. This is no different than how Bitcoin held in any US-listed ETF or trust is ultimately controlled by the US government. Capitalism or communism – same same but different.”

And if you’re doubting that China is paving the way forward, check out:

Of course, we’ll be monitoring closely whether the ETF gets approved… so stay tuned 👀

🐦 A couple of Tweets we found interesting

The best of the bird

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