👀 Is it time for caution?

GM everyone. This is 2036.

The late Charlie Munger used to say: ‘The money is not made in the buying or selling - but in the waiting’

And wait, we have.

Since March, Bitcoin’s made us all go through the emotional rollercoaster of the century.

Yesterday, Bitcoin fell below $60,000 again… so is it time to be careful?

Courtesy of Saint Pump, let’s zoom out and look at the bigger picture…

1/ We are 174 days into the Bitcoin halving cycle 🌀

Remember:

• In 2012, it took Bitcoin 92 days to break its previous all-time high.

• In 2016, it took 291 days.

• In 2020— 216.

Every day that passes inches us closer to the natural part of the crypto cycle, when Bitcoin climbs to a new all-time high again.

And that’s when the real fun begins.

Everyone and their grandmother will ask you about crypto. It’ll be on the news, on TikTok, and your favorite finance YouTubers will make videos about it.

These are the good times and have historically led the charts that look like this:

2/ Bitcoin is on an uptrend 📈

As I explained last month, Bitcoin has made a new higher high and higher low for the first time since March:

You might be thinking— these are just squiggles on a chart. Why is this a big deal?

Because people care about short-term price movements. Key points on charts influence sentiment more than you think.

Traders use this as a signal that crypto is finally moving up again after six months of sideways action.

And if enough people believe the downtrend is over, it can easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

3/ Global liquidity is picking back up 💸

Liquidity is good for risk assets. The last time liquidity peaked was in November 2021, which is when both crypto (and the NASDAQ) topped.

Now, liquidity is quickly moving up again… and with it, the prices of risk assets.

The Fed cut rates by 0.5% and will cut more this year in a decent economy.

Plus, China has started stimulating and has indicated that it will do more if necessary.

All good signs for crypto.

4/ Gold may have topped 🧈

… and that’s (unexpectedly, perhaps) good for Bitcoin.

In the last two cycles, gold topped just before Bitcoin started a serious acceleration upwards (squint to see gold in purple, Bitcoin in white):

Gold just broke its uptrend structure again (meaning it may have topped), which could mean the beginning of a new move up for BTC.

Of course, no one can predict the future.

But good times should be just around the corner now.

Ultimately, all I can do is inject you with hopium to help you endure the volatility.

So if your coins don’t move up as fast as you’d like— don’t despair.

If Hans Zimmer were into crypto, this is what he’d say:

• 🎯 What does an ideal crypto portfolio look like? How do you spot winners? How do you avoid FOMO? How and when should you take profits?

  • Get these answers (and many more) in Enter, Earn & Exit, my 2024 blueprint for investing in crypto— get $100 off using code ‘2024’.

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.