🤔 Is it too late to buy bitcoin?

PLUS: Where is bitcoin going next?

Alex M.
December 07, 2023

GM everyone. This is 2036. We scroll for gems all day so you don’t have to.

Here’s what we’re serving up today 🍲: Bitcoin is up +164% so far this year. But is it too late to get in on the action?

Let’s dig in.

The cycle of fear and greed looks something like this:

… and the cycle repeats.

We’ve seen it time and time again. Bitcoin makes new all-time highs every four years.

In between, it’s mostly ignored. But around the all-time highs, it’s a mania. Investors think the good times will never stop.

Exactly one year ago, Jim Cramer urged investors to sell their bitcoin. It was trading at $17,000.

It was a classic example of assuming bad news (the FTX blowup) was permanent.

But just like clockwork, good news was:

Next, investors will think the good news is permanent - and that up-only will never end.

I expect this will begin around the bitcoin halving in April 2024.

Historically, bitcoin rallies for 480 days after the bitcoin halving.

And although it goes higher every time, it goes up less than the previous time.

Pantera Capital - which started the first Bitcoin fund 10 years ago - published an interesting analysis on this:

Every cycle, most of the gains in the price of bitcoin are made after the halving. But each time, it’s less than the previous time.

This means that…

1/ If history is any guide, Bitcoin still has a lot further to go in this cycle. That doesn’t mean, however, that it will be a straight line.

Even in a bull market, the price of bitcoin can fall 50-60%. Be prepared emotionally.

2/ The bull market is likely to last ∼480 days after the halving (until August 2025)

The halving is still five months away. Although it may not feel that way, the fun hasn’t even begun yet.

3/ So while it’s impossible to predict how high it will go…

… it is definitely possible to predict human nature.

Eventually, people will get greedy.

They’ll buy bitcoin at any price and ignore any signs of bad news.

That’s because there will be so much good news along the way.

The Bitcoin ETF will be approved
Bitcoin will (probably) break $100,000
A nation might announce they’re buying bitcoin or even adopt it as legal tender.
Bitcoin will be on the news every day

And there will be many, many more fantastic news that are impossible to predict right now.

So no, it is not too late to buy bitcoin. Relative to historical standards, it is still very undervalued.

Bitcoin could go to $100,000, $150,000, or more.

No one knows. All our projections are just that - projections.

At the end of the day, all we can predict is human behavior.

Based on what we see right now, we still have a ways to go.

The day that changes - you’ll be the first to know.