💡 Is the cycle over?

GM everyone. This is 2036.

Charts are looking ugly. Everything is in the red.

Bitcoin can’t seem to make new highs.

No one seems to care about the upcoming Ether ETF.

And the German government is currently selling $3 BILLION of Bitcoin.

I’ll admit: things are ugly.

So you may rightfully wonder - is the cycle over? Was $72K the Bitcoin top?

Let’s have a quick look.

In December 2023 - I shared the following chart by Pantera Capital.

The thesis was simple: at every crypto cycle peak, the % of bitcoin held for 1+ year declines drastically 📉 as the price increases 📈.

You can see this in the difference between the orange line (1+ year holders) and black line (bitcoin price).

Like clockwork, at every cycle peak, the orange line has tanked and the black line has surged.

When I shared this graph, we were almost as far away from the cycle peak as possible.

So, where are we today?

Here’s the updated chart:

As you can see, we’ve definitely moved.

The price has gone up.

And long-term holders have started selling.

In hindsight, it looks like the peak of price to 1+ year holders was around November 2023.

Since then, it’s been falling as the price has increased.

But here’s the good news.

Historically, Bitcoin has continued rallying for ∼16 months after reaching the peak of 1+ year holders relative to price.

That’s 484 days starting in November 2023, which brings us to March 2025.

And here’s how much it’s gone up every time….

Ok - so what does this mean?

If you zoom out from day-to-day prices, you’ll see that we are likely very far from the peak yet.

• The cycle is not over

• And the biggest gains are yet to come.

We’re no longer early, per se. 

But we’re about to enter the fun zone:

That means the best thing you can do is hold and do something better with your time than looking at the price of bitcoin or the bleeding altcoin you got into.

Right now, we’re in the boring zone.

We’re in the zone that shakes weak hands out of the market.

Don’t let that be you.

This is where people capitulate. And it tends to mark a local bottom.

I’m looking to buy more SOL at these levels. The chart looks surprisingly much like it did in 2021 before it ripped up another 9X…

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.