🐘 Let's address this...

PLUS: is Solana failing?

Author

Alex M.
April 05, 2024

GM everyone. This is 2036. We scroll for gems all day so you don’t have to.

Let’s address the elephant in the room 🐘

There’s a lot of talk right now about Solana ‘failing.’

On-chain data shows that 77% of transactions no longer go through.

When that happens, this is what you see inside your wallet:

So what’s going on?

Alright, consider this: typically, when you click on a website, the URL in your address bar changes.

In that process, the website you’re trying to access requests data from the website’s servers.

In most cases, the server will send the information to the client, and you’ll be able to view the website normally.

But sometimes:

  • the servers might not work

  • or you made a request the server cannot (any longer) fulfill - which is exactly what’s happening on Solana right now.

Some users are trying to trade coins on exchanges like Jupiter.

But by the time they click the “buy” button and the transaction tries to go through, the market’s already moved too much.

Their desired price is gone. And so their transaction fails.

But here’s the kicker: ∼90% of these failed transactions are made by bots trying to arbitrage short-term price movements.

So it’s mostly machines failing rather than humans.

That doesn’t mean you won’t get failed transactions - but if you do, simply try increasing your slippage.

So, is this bad?

No - at least not yet. And I don’t think it will get bad.

For now, our Solana thesis is still intact. And Jupiter is rolling out a massive upgrade next week to handle the congestion.

The overall market is bleeding, and anyone holding altcoins is in pain.

But this is a bull market, and as long as that remains the case, we’re all in on the strongest theses.

Bitcoin maintains its bullish price structure with higher lows.

You can see that these higher lows tend to lead to massive breakouts (here’s Bitcoin today - bottom - compared to Bitcoin in 2020 - top):

So, if you’re ever in doubt - zoom out:

2036 was launched on January 6, 2023, when crypto was trading at:

  • Bitcoin ∟$16,000

  • ETH ∟$1,200

  • SOL ∟$9

Between then and now, there have been lots of problems and people calling for ‘the end.’

We’ve come far, but we’ve got quite a bit further to go.

We’ll get there exactly the way we got here: by taking intelligent risks others ignore.

During the last bull run, most of the gains in any coin came during its 10 best-performing days.

We don’t know when these days will be.

But they’ll be obvious in hindsight.

And when they come, you’ll be happy you had exposure.