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PLUS: when will we top this cycle?

Author

Alex M.
December 10, 2024

GM everyone. This is 2036.

If history is any guide, we’re now in the late stage of the crypto cycle.

Every four years, altcoins:

  • suffer a ∼30% drawdown in December…

  • … followed by a 3-month rally that marks the first top of the cycle (the second top - lower than the first - is marked ∼6 months later, in Q4, and is followed by the bear market 🐻😱)

The first part just happened.

Altcoins suffered a -27% drawdown in the last 48 hours - the biggest liquidation event since 2021.

This means a 3-month rally from here would take us to around early March.

This is not a timeline people outside of crypto ('normies') are familiar with because they just started flooding in again for the first time since the last cycle.

So you’ll likely hear vastly different things on TikTok and YouTube from crypto influencers.

Now:

  • I’m cautious of my own belief in this cycle repeating like all others

  • The idea of a March top is largely consensus among crypto native investors - and I’m careful of anything consensus at this point

If we do get a cycle top in March, however, the crypto cycle will not be over (yet).

Instead, it will kick off late-stage narratives like gaming, NFTs and memecoins that retail investors can easily understand.

This could last until the end of the year.

This is also when we’ll see celebrity endorsements, exchanges buying stadiums, crypto ads everywhere, etc.

Everything will pump - Layer 1s, layer 2s, memecoins, RWA coins, dinosaur coins from previous cycles your uncle still holds (XRP, ADA, LTC, etc) - everything.

When we’re there, you’ll know it.

This scenario is what I’m mentally preparing for.

With that said, charts are just astrology for nerds. If it turns out to be accurate, it was just luck.

Of course.

I get it.

The past doesn’t dictate the future.

… or does it?

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.