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šŸ‘€ One coin we're watching today

PLUS: All eyes on $JUP

GM everyone. This is 2036. We scroll for gems all day so you don’t have to.

Here’s what we’re serving up today šŸ²: One of the most anticipated Solana tokens will go live today. Even if you didn't qualify for the airdrop, you can participate. But should you?

Let’s dig in.

We've talked about qualifying for the Jupiter airdrop multiple times before (just recently, here and here) šŸŖ‚

Jupiter is the biggest decentralized exchange on Solana.

It’s the equivalent of Ethereum’s Uniswap - but on Solana (and you know how much Arthur Hayes loves Uniswap’s token, $UNI).

Today, Jupiter will airdrop its token - $JUP - to a million wallets and go live to trade.

The question is - should you buy it?

That primarily depends on whether it’s a good or bad deal.

So, let's make a few assumptions.

  • Solana is currently ∼1/7 the market cap of Ethereum ($44 billion vs. $280 billion).

  • When Uniswap launched, it was worth ∼$3 billion. It reached a peak of $21 billion in 2021. Today, Uniswap is worth ā€œonlyā€ ∼$6 billion.

Applying the Solana discount (1/7), we could expect a token like Jupiter to be worth $400-$500 million at launch.

That would be in line with other similar launches, too.

But already now, it’s worth more than that. And it hasn’t even started trading.

The initial token supply will be 1.3 billion. People are placing pre-market sales of their airdrop tokens at ∼$0.7, which you can see here.

This values the Jupiter protocol at ∼$900 million today.

That’s 50% higher than what I believe it’s worth today.

Jupiter’s token will not accrue value from fees on the Jupiter exchange. So it has little value outside of being a governance token.

But here’s the thing: if the Solana ecosystem rises much faster than the rest of the market this bull cycle (which I expect), then Jupiter’s token will rise with it.

That means a $10 billion valuation in the bull market is not totally unrealistic. Remember, there’s usually both more downside and upside than people expect.

So, even at these elevated prices, Jupiter’s token could 10X in the bull market.

On top of that, Jupiter’s token could climb to $1 in the next few days. It would be a classic frenzied launch, and $1 is a psychological number people can hold onto.

Eventually, however, the frenzy is likely to cool down.

And when it does, Jupiter’s token could be a great buy.

At the current valuation, I think Jupiter is on the pricier side, and I will be selling any airdrops I get.

I’d be surprised if we don’t get an opportunity to buy Jupiter at a better price in the next few weeks/months.

Of course, I risk being sidelined if Jupiter takes off.

But it’s a risk I’m willing to take.

If you don’t want to monitor the situation too closely and just want to hold for the next 6-12 months, the easiest way to buy the token is on the Jupiter exchange itself.

All you’ll need is a Phantom wallet and some $SOL in it.

You can also check if you qualify for the airdrop here.

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.