👀 Surprise, surprise

GM everyone. This is 2036. We scroll for gems all day so you don’t have to.

Here’s what we’re serving up today 🍲: Bitcoin’s broken the $50K mark. Most people didn’t expect it. What’s next?

Let’s dig in.

Many crypto analysts use technical analysis to determine the future prices of their favorite cryptos based on the past.

Now - technical analysis is never a guaranteed thing.

Instead, it tries to provide insights into what traders call resistance and support levels that could dictate where prices will go next.

• If we break through resistance levels, prices can rip much higher

• If we fall below support levels, prices can go lower

And even if it’s just astrology for nerds - if enough people believe it, it tends to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The widely held belief going into the ETF was that prices were going to do something like this:

i.e:

1. After a brief dip (which we got two weeks ago)…

2. Bitcoin would re-test the resistance at $46K…

3. And then fall again into the $30Ks before surging to new highs.

Well, turns out that was wrong.

Earlier this week (and again today), Bitcoin breached $50K, a long way above resistance.

This happened even after a worse-than-expected inflation headline yesterday (higher-than-expected inflation should be bad for crypto).

So what’s happening?

Many people will give you different reasons, but one in particular stands out: ETF inflows are surprising to the upside.

Many crypto analysts expected it would take months for the Bitcoin ETF inflows to kick in properly.

One of the most widely quoted estimates is from Galaxy Digital Assets, which said:

“we estimate $14bn of inflows into a Bitcoin ETF in the first year following an ETF launch.”

Well, it looks like we’re ahead on the timeline. There were $2bn of net inflows in the last 4 days.

Yesterday alone saw a record $630 million in inflows.

So where does that leave us?

Right now, most crypto analysts are confused.

• Do we follow the typical 4-year cycle and correct deeper?

• Do we defy the odds and push toward new all-time highs soon?

No one has the answer, of course.

But the scenario will likely play out in the next few weeks.

Bitcoin’s gone higher than people expected, but that doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods.

It's still possible Bitcoin retraces back to the mid-$30Ks.

The ETF flows could slow down significantly. And if stocks dip, it could drag crypto down with it.

But if the macro stays supportive and the ETF flows continue to go up - you’re probably not bullish enough.

Some are even calling for a new all-time high before the halving.

Never a dull day in crypto.

Will keep you updated.

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1/ Traders are now eyeing $64,000 Bitcoin

2/ … they’re also betting on new shiny things: SUI, SEI & RON

3/ The Starknet airdrop is here

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.