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- 👀 One coin that's no longer cheap
GM everyone. This is 2036, the crypto newsletter that pays you.
Here’s what we’re serving up today 🍲: this is it, ladies and gentlemen. The moment we’ve all been waiting for. It’s been a year in the making.
Let’s dig in.
🥔 Today’s meat and potatoes
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There are two things we pay attention to at 2036:
How much Taylor Swift makes daily on her latest tour (∼$14m per day and counting…)
Whether our favorite internet coins are cheap or expensive
For the past 7 months, we’ve screamed left and right some version of:
“bitcoin is cheap. The time to buy is now.”
Well - it looks like we’ll be ending that spiel soon.
You see, there are a handful of tools crypto degenerates like us use to value their favorite coins. One of those is confusingly called MVRV-Z.
You don’t need to remember this, but for good measure - MVRV-Z takes into account the deviation between a crypto’s market cap and realized cap.
The realized market cap removes coins that have been lost from the calculation (∼15% of all bitcoin) and instead values coins on when they were last moved.
Here’s the current MVRV-Z:
The little green line indicates when bitcoin is dirt cheap. And over time, it maps to Bitcoin’s price cycles astoundingly well.
But the train has now left the station. You had a year to accumulate magic internet coins. And bitcoin is no longer cheap.
Going forward, we’ll be watching how high we can go.
Crypto moves in 4-year cycles. And over the next 18 months, we’ll see:
the bitcoin halving
a bitcoin ETF
improving macro conditions
… all of which are likely to be positive catalysts for bitcoin and crypto in general.
You can see how this cycle has played out in the past, from all-time high to new all-time high:
Notice how bitcoin always:
moves down/sideways for 1-2 years (which it’s done since November 2021)
always moves higher eventually (despite every media outlet saying “bitcoin is dead” at least a dozen times)
In fact, here’s how high it’s gone from each bottom:
We’re the little green line on the left
The bottom is likely behind us. Now it could be uphill from here until 2025/6.
“yeah but I’ll buy when the market goes lower.”
Maybe. Binance could collapse and drag down the market, or something unexpected could happen.
But Cathie Wood, the most badass woman in crypto, thinks maybe not:
Bitcoin has strong support at current levels and lots of buyers.
But at the end of the day, charts will never be able to account 100% for human psychology and macro conditions.
And we never use them for short-term movements.
Charts are useful for spotting trends and cyclical patterns.
And it looks like we’re in for a wild ride from here.
Bitcoin may not be cheap, but that’s ok. There’ll be plenty of other opportunities as we climb higher.
We’ll be here to guide you through the most important ones.
In the meantime, we wish you a fantastic start to the week.
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