šŸ‘€ The "coin" we're watching

PLUS: how to access censored information

Author

Alex M.
October 13, 2023

GM everyone. This is 2036, the crypto newsletter that pays you.

Today is Favorite Friday, where we serve up the resources we most enjoyed this week šŸ².

So if you're looking for content to dig into this weekend, this is your list...

šŸ„¢ Our Favorite Resources

What we most enjoyed this week

Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of the worldā€™s largest hedge fund, is one of the deepest thinkers on macroeconomics and markets.

Yesterday, he posted his latest thoughts on where the Israel-Hamas conflict could go from here.

I think everyone should read the whole thing. Itā€™s not very long. But here are a few snippetsā€¦

It appears that we are at a very critical juncture in which we will soon see if the Israel-Hamas war spreads and how far it spreads and, longer term, whether the great powers are forces for peace (and will back away from the brink of direct conflict) or get involved (and cross the brink).

The odds of transitioning from the contained conflicts to a more uncontained hot world war that includes the major powers have risen from 35% to about 50% over the last two years.

The world order is changing in ways that havenā€™t happened in our lifetimes but have happened many times in history.

I suggest that you study other pre-war periods, such as those in the two years prior to World War I and II in both Europe and Asia. What is happening now sure looks a lot like that.

It is unlikely that this Israel-Hamas war will be limited to Israel and the Gaza Strip and likely that it will continue until one side clearly wins over the other.

The US is now fighting proxy wars in Europe and the Middle East while preparing for war in East Asia. As these wars spread, they will cost more.

Ray Dalio echos Paul Tudor Jones - who we talked about yesterday - who worries that Israel and Iran will go directly into conflict.

Ray, however, also believes thatā€¦

The progression toward a world war between the biggest powers (the US and China) has not yet crossed the irreversible line from being containable (which it is now) to becoming a brutal war between the biggest powers and their allies.

If youā€™re interested in understanding the odds of a hot war between the US and China, this interview on the All-In Podcast with national security expert Graham Allison is a good complement to Ray's article.

For more context on Rayā€™s views, watch his excellent animated summary of how the world order is changing.

Hereā€™s the full video, and hereā€™s the 5-minute summary.

Two years ago, Grayscale filed to have $GBTC - a bitcoin investment fund - converted into an ETF.

The SEC denied the application, and Grayscale sued. Grayscale won the lawsuit, and the SEC has until today to appeal the court ruling.

GBTC will probably get converted into a Bitcoin ETF sooner rather than later.

Thatā€™s why itā€™s outperformed Bitcoin by nearly 2.5X YTD, as the discount on GBTC has decreased from -49% to -16% today.

We first wrote about this when GBTC was trading at a -38% discount (and its cousin ETHE at -47%) in April.

Weā€™ve come a long way since.

If the SEC does not appeal the courtā€™s decision today, expect the discount to keep narrowing.

Good days for crypto ahead.

And talking about good days - on an unrelated note - Hans Zimmer dropped his latest album for the film The Creator (about AI). You can find it here.

I also found these lofi Lord of the Rings beats Iā€™m putting on repeat for all you Middle Earthers out there [minute 10:05 gave me goosebumpsā€¦]

šŸ¦ A couple of Tweets we found interesting

The best of the bird

Why weā€™re bullish on Coinbase stock and watching $COIN very closelyā€¦

šŸ–¼ļø Crypto meme of the day

From across the world wide information superhighway

Big day today šŸ¤£

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