Base Layer
Posts
👀 The wait is almost over

👀 The wait is almost over

PLUS: FriendTech down bad 📉

Alex M.
August 28, 2023

GM everyone. This is 2036, the crypto newsletter that pays you.

Here’s what we’re serving up today 🍲: the most important event in crypto is only a few months away. Historically, it’s been followed by a raging bull market 📈 Is this still the case? And how can you prepare for it?

Let’s dig in.

🥔 Today’s meat and potatoes

Get smarter on crypto in 2 minutes

If you’ve been in bitcoin long enough, you’ve probably heard about the bitcoin halving.

Here’s what it is:

Bitcoins come into the world through the work of computers (called miners) that complete mathematical problems.

These problems help validate transactions on the blockchain and secure the network (that’s what makes it decentralized).

In exchange for their work, the miners get rewarded with bitcoin. These bitcoins are then sold onto the market, which is where the rest of us buy them.

But here’s where it gets interesting: every 4 years, the amount of rewards the bitcoin miners receive is cut in half.

That moment is called the bitcoin halving.

bitcoin mining rewards every 4 years

The bitcoin halving is the most important event in all of crypto.

Here’s why:

if demand for bitcoin stays the same (or increases) AND…
supply decreases 📉

… then the price of bitcoin should go up 📈.

And that’s exactly what happens every time.

Historically, bitcoin bottoms ∼480 days before the halving and rallies for ∼480 days after the halving.

talk about patterns

The next bitcoin halving is scheduled to take place on April 20, 2024.

That is only 237 days away. It fits perfectly with the bitcoin bottom of November 9, 2022. We’re 243 days into the current rally.

If history is any guide, bitcoin will continue to rally for 237 days until the halving and 480 days after the halving until August 13, 2025.

But every halving is different.

In the first halving in 2012, the mining rewards were cut by 25 BTC - a huge number relative to the existing bitcoin at that time.

But the next halving will cut rewards by just 3.25 BTC.

This means the impact of halvings decreases over time, a.k.a every time, bitcoin goes up, but less than during the previous halving: