🌀 Why this halving is different

GM everyone. This is 2036. We scroll for gems all day so you don’t have to.

This is the new Favorite Friday, where we look at where we are in the current crypto cycle 🌀

So if you’re looking for clarity on when to buy and sell, read this…

The Bitcoin Halving - the defining day of every 4-year crypto cycle - is just 21 days away.

Historically, crypto has followed a predictable pattern around the halving.

• Bitcoin bottoms ∼480 days before the halving…

• … and then tops ∼480 days after the halving

If that were to repeat in this cycle, it would mean:

• Bitcoin would be $35,448 by the halving on April 20th

• Bitcoin would top out at ∼$150,000 in August 2025

But here’s the thing: these numbers are already way off.

For the first time in Bitcoin’s history - Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high before the halving.

That’s a huge deal.

In fact, Bitcoin is 2X higher than its long-term average before the halving.

So what’s going on? - and where does this lead us?

Well - a few things are different this time around…

1/ We’ve hardly had any severe corrections 📈

Crypto typically experiences several -40-60% corrections on its way to a new peak.

This cycle has given us just -25% pullbacks, enough to send chills down my spine but far below averages.

2/ Bitcoin ETFs are buying 🏛️

Baby boomers, pension funds, institutions, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, etc. - can all buy Bitcoin through the Bitcoin ETF.

We’re talking hundreds of millions of dollars per day - something we’ve never seen before.

3/ The macro is supportive 🌍

It looks increasingly likely that we’ll get interest rate cuts this year - which has historically been great for risk assets like crypto.

Any president who wants to get re-elected will do everything to make sure the stock market is UP when elections happen.

So - what can we expect this year?

One theory is that this cycle is much faster than any we’ve seen before.

Bob Loukas calls this the left-translated cycle:

• a shorter bull market with a blow-off top followed by

• a longer bear market (ugh, don’t like the sound of that) similar to the dot-com bubble of 1999.

This means crypto could top sooner and higher than most people expect - in Q4 of this year or Q1 of 2025.

How can you prepare?

No one can predict the future, but…

a) you want to be prepared for the off-chance that prices could top earlier than we all expect.

That doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. But this cycle does look different than the last ones. And you want to be ready.

Remember, top signals should not be specific dates but sentiment - something I covered last week and will continue to cover in these Friday newsletters.

b) because we’re at 2X speed doesn’t mean we’ll do 2X prices.

If Bitcoin goes to $150,000 this year, there’s no guarantee it’ll go to $300K next year just because it’s “supposed to top in August.”

It could hit $140K in December and then spiral downward for the next 18 months.

No one knows.

Personally, I’m preparing for a Bitcoin top in Q4 of this year at around $150K, followed by an altseason that could last anywhere from 2 to 6 months.

But I’ll constantly adjust these targets based on sentiment.

This means I’m trying to:

• make sure the vast majority of tokens from 2036: Private Investor are paid out before the end of altseason

• take a lot of risk now, and prepare to de-risk earlier than expected

Of course, I’d love to be proven wrong.

This fractal - which has been scarily accurate in the past - thinks we could:

• reach $100K by April (graph 1, bottom)

• reach $300K in Q1 of 2025 as part of the blow-off top of the left-translated cycle (graph 2)

If that were to happen - or if the bull market continues until 2026 - I’ll be the happiest man alive, and we’ll all make more money than we ever dreamed of.

But it will be icing on the cake, not something I’m betting on.

Remember, it is always better to sell slightly too early than to roundtrip all your gains back to zero, waiting for that last bounce to sell.

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